New Separations Methodology for Projections Data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has implemented a new methodology to measure occupational separations. National projections for 2016-2026, using the new methodology, were released in October 2017. State of Arkansas projections for 2017-2019, using the new Separations methodology, will be released in March 2018, followed by Long-term 2016-2026 Projections in summer 2018. Why the change?
It's no secret the workforce has changed over the last 20 years. From technology advancements and trends in the workforce, to policy updates and new standards in human resources, the U.S. labor force is vastly different.
These changes in the workforce have brought about the need for a new methodology. The Replacements methodology will no longer be used. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) created the new Separations methodology to better understand and project what will happen within the dynamic new economy in which a worker will likely have many occupations in a lifetime.
It gives states and BLS the ability to differentiate between those who are leaving the workforce entirely and those who are permanently leaving an occupation to enter a new field or occupational category. The Separations methodology better reflects what we hear from our partners in workforce, education and the private sector.
One of the most notable changes in the workforce has been the shifting trend of career trajectories for employees. Rather than entering an occupation and staying in the same occupation for 40 years until retirement, workers are moving from occupation to occupation. For example:
Meet Allie. Allie grew up in a small town in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, and spent her childhood hiking, skiing and swimming in Lake Superior. After graduating high school, Allie began working as a bank teller and stayed in that occupation for five years.
She decides to leave her job as a bank teller to further her education, and enrolls as a full-time college student at Northern Michigan University. She spends the next four years as a college student.
After graduating, she reenters the labor force and finds a job as an accountant. Eight years later, Allie gets a job in a new occupation as a human resources specialist. She spends 15 years in HR before being promoted to financial manager, where she works 12 more years before retiring.
The Separations methodology will more accurately capture the changes in Allie's career and will account for her career changes in employment projections.
Why is it important to capture a worker's change in occupation? Projections help us predict what the future labor force will look like so we can better prepare for the workforce of tomorrow. To get a complete picture of the opportunities for the future workforce, we need to understand Occupational Separations, the projected openings created in an occupation when current workers leave for good.
Want to learn more about the Separations methodology? Visit: https://www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/separations-methods.htm
Tags: Employment and Occupations
